Κυριακή 16 Σεπτεμβρίου 2012

Κρίση ηθικής


Δεν έχω κάτι καινούριο να πω. Πολύ εξυπνότεροι από μένα άνθρωποι ξόδεψαν σημαντικό μέρος της ζωής τους σκεπτόμενοι περί δικαιοσύνης, ουτοπιών και δυστοπιών. Ωστόσο, οι ολοένα και εντεινόμενες πιέσεις του ανώτερου 1% της ανθρωπότητας προς το υπόλοιπο 99% και η παρουσίαση των δεινών που υποχρεωνόμαστε να υποστούμε ως λίγο-πολύ αναπόφευκτα, καθιστούν αναγκαία την επανάληψη των πολλάκις ειπωμένων και πλέον τετριμμένων.

Αν αφήσουμε για λίγο στην άκρη την απαραίτητη κριτική για τα λάθη των πολιτικών μας, θα δούμε ότι το κόστος τους το επωμίζονται δυσανάλογα οι μεγάλες μάζες του πληθυσμού. Αυτό φυσικά δεν αποτελεί ιδιαιτερότητα της χώρας μας, αλλά μια παγκόσμια τάση, που αναμφίβολα οι ιστορικοί θα μας πούνε πως επανεμφανίζεται συχνά. Η τάση των ανθρώπων να διατηρήσουν τα κεκτημένα τους δεν πρόκειται ποτέ να εξαλειφθεί. Σε έναν κόσμο που το χρήμα ισοδυναμεί με εξουσία, είναι δύσκολο να δούμε πώς αυτοί που κερδίζουν τις καλές εποχές θα αναγκασθούν να χάσουν στις κακές.

Τα παραδείγματα είναι πολλά, αλλά θα σταθώ σε ένα πρόσφατο, το οποίο εντυπωσίασε όσους το άκουσαν. Η πλουσιότερη γυναίκα του κόσμου, μια Αυστραλιανή ιδιοκτήτης αδαμαντωρυχείων, η οποία βγάζει $600 το δευτερόλεπτο, πιέζει για μειώσεις μισθών στην Αυστραλία. Περίεργο και εξωφρενικό; Καθόλου. Οι περισσότεροι από εμάς, το ίδιο ακριβώς θα κάναμε στη θέση της, ακόμη κι αν δε θέλουμε να το παραδεχθούμε. Αν δεν είμασταν εκ φύσης εγωιστές, δε θα είχαμε επιβιώσει μέχρι σήμερα ως είδος. Το ότι οι αρχαίοι πρόγονοί μας είχαν την πολυτέλεια να αποκαλέσουν τον εγωιστή "ιδιώτη", λέξη που αργότερα εξελίχθηκε στο "idiot" (βλαξ), δε σημαίνει ότι η έμφυτη τάση μας εξαλείφεται εύκολα. Πριν κατακρίνουμε λοιπόν την πλούσια Αυστραλέζα, ας κάνουμε μια ενδοσκόπηση για να δούμε πόσο διαφέρει
από εμάς.

Πόσοι από εμάς δεν είμαστε πραγματικά "ιδιώτες"; Πόσοι σκεφτόμαστε, έστω και λίγο, τον συνάνθρωπό μας πριν παρκάρουμε σε θέση αναπήρων, πριν κλείσουμε τον δρόμο, πριν εξαναγκάσουμε κάποιον να δουλέψει χωρίς ασφαλιστική κάλυψη, πριν  πουλήσουμε χωρίς να κόψουμε απόδειξη, πριν υπερτιμολογήσουμε, πριν συκοφαντήσουμε, πριν αποφύγουμε ευθύνες, πριν, πριν...

Ναι ο κόσμος μας είναι άδικος, επειδή όσοι έχουν την ευκαιρία, εκμεταλλεύονται τους συνανθρώπους τους, προς ιδίον όφελος. Ο κόσμος μας είναι άδικος, επειδή εμείς οι ίδιοι είμαστε άδικοι. Αν θέλουμε να τον αλλάξουμε, ας κοιτάξουμε να βελτιώσουμε τον εαυτό μας και τους γύρω μας. Ίσως έτσι, στη κρίση του 3009 μ.χ. να μη χρειαστεί να την πληρώσουν και πάλι οι ίδιοι.

Κυριακή 2 Σεπτεμβρίου 2012

Formalizing Normative Moral Theories


Abstract
A formal model for the statement of normative moral theories (NMTs) is proposed as a tool for the facilitation and expansion of academic discourse on ethics and meta-ethics. The model is argued to bring forth hidden assumptions, eliminate abstractions and facilitate understanding, to enable synergies with other sciences in clearly defined areas and to set clear boundaries for the scope of peer review.

Preface

Conscious systems posit Normative Moral Theories to guide their actions.


The universe is a closed system which contains conscious beings. Conscious beings are defined as the subsystems with at least the following characteristics:
·         Analytical capability. They are able to decompose the perceived universe into clearly defined, layered classes of structures, with clearly defined states.
·         Synthetic capability. They are able to formulate general statements to describe relationships between the classified structures.
·         Sense of identity. They have the perception of a self, which they classify as distinct from the rest of the universe.
·         Planning capability. They have the perception of time, can identify cause and effect and formulate plans of action.
·         Volition and Action. They have innate drives, the perception of will and the ability to execute automated and planned actions to achieve their goals.

The innate drives bias the conscious systems towards particular goals and actions. However, once fundamental needs and wants are satisfied, volition is quite malleable and amenable to cognitive influences. Due to the aforementioned characteristics, conscious systems perceive themselves as having free will and proceed to set additional goals, not directly dictated by or even contradictory to their innate drives. The formulation of a Normative Moral Theory is one such expression of the perception of free will.

Benefits of a formal model for NMTs
Bring forth hidden assumptions, eliminate abstractions and facilitate understanding. Set boundaries for criticism.
NMTs have a long tradition of providing guidelines based on the assumptions and knowledge of their time. As a result, there was little need for rigorous justification of the particular guidelines. In free, democratic societies it is accepted that individuals may hold different beliefs, as long as their actions do not stray considerably from the range of actions accepted by the society. At times, the wide range of opinions means that no true consensus can ever be reached on particular subjects, leading to constant conflicts and power struggles. In an ideal situation, honest discourse may lead to clear understanding of the reasoning behind the various beliefs and to the attainment of a relatively fair compromise. However, as long as the assumptions are not unambiguously formulated and the limits of criticism are not well established, misunderstandings and aphorisms are unavoidable.
A formal model for NMTs can facilitate understanding by restating implicit assumptions and the reasoning used to reach particular conclusions, in widely understood terms. A formal model can expose fundamental, irreconcilable differences in viewpoints that need to be accepted, as well as logical fallacies that can be constructively criticized. A formal model can’t eliminate conflicts, but it can offer a framework for more constructive dialog between the opposing factions.
Enable synergies with social and natural sciences, mathematics and computer science.
Ethics is certainly not a science and can never become one. Conscious beings may agree on many things about their world, but they will always disagree on how one should lead one’s life. However, a formal model can permit ethicists to utilize the considerable arsenal built for other sciences, in order to facilitate predictions about the effects of certain actions on the pursued goals. Science can only help when the problem is clearly formulated and ethical issues never are. We will later show how a formal model enables the use of software simulations, statistics and chaos theory to rigorously justify prescribed courses of action, based on arbitrary assumptions. 
Clearly outline the boundaries between ethics and science.
One practical application of a formal model is to once and for all define what science can and what it can’t say about how one should lead one’s life. The subject has recently become of interest once more, as the ideas of people such as XXX and YYY are appealing to many.



Elements of a NMT

All NMTs assume or define the relationship between the individual and the rest of the world (describe what is), set goals (posit oughts) and prescribe ways to achieve the goals.
NMTs describe what is
·         A formal NMT MUST explicitly describe all perceived classes, states and interrelationships, in terms unambiguously understood by a fluent speaker of the language.

To posit an NMT, conscious beings either assume as common knowledge or define the relationship between the individual and one or more other structures. They arbitrarily decompose the perceived closed system (universe) into subclasses (e.g. family, society, environment etc.), identify class instance states (e.g. happy parent, just society) and define interactions between the individual and the instances of such classes (e.g. a human depends on plants and animals for sustenance). Defining a class requires setting arbitrary, but clear boundaries. For instance, a conscious system may split the universe into just two classes, one containing the conscious system itself and the other containing everything else.
The subjectivity of perception and the practical difficulties of accurately defining abstract states such as ‘just’ or ‘happy’ guarantee that the consensus on what is can never be universal.  As a result:

NMTs posit oughts
·         A formal NMT MUST assign arbitrary value functions to class instances and/or instance states.
·         A formal NMT MUST mathematically define targets for the assigned value functions
NMTs set goals for the individual, the collection of individuals or any other instance of the described or assumed classes. They assign arbitrary values to instances of the described classes (e.g. an individual life), or to perceived instance states (e.g. an individual’s happiness).
To posit clear goals, the NMT must assign non-zero value to instances of at least one class. The value may well be infinite, suggesting that no system instance can be sacrificed to pursue another goal. A NMT may also assign values to particular system instance states[1]. The NMT must then set a target for the assigned values. For example, a NMT might assign a constant value (V) to every human life L and another value to the human state of happiness, for each human H(i). It might then set various goals (G), such as the following:

NMT 1: As many people as possible, as happy as possible

 G = ∑_(i=1)->L〖(H(i)+V〗)

NMT 2:  As many people as possible, as happy as possible, but with a lowest bound and a greater emphasis on happiness

G = ∑_(i=1)->L〖(H(i)*V〗)    where H(i) > C

NMT 3:  Seek to maximize the average happiness

G =(∑_1->L〖(H(i)+V)〗)/L

NMT 4: Look into the long-term and target a sustainable level of happy population (Expected value, for time 0 to infinity)

The assigned values themselves need not be constants. For instance, the value may be a function of the number of instances of the particular system, allowing for increasing value as the number of instances decreases (endangered species).

NMTs prescribe actions to achieve the set goals
·         A formal NMT MUST provide rigorously justified, clear guidelines as to how the targets should be pursued, under particular circumstances.
·         A formal NMT MAY provide rigorously justified, practical rules of thumb to guide decision making in a wide range of situations.
A NMT prescribes actions and methods of choosing between actions that lead to the attainment of the set target(s). Even NMTs that agree both on what is and what ought to be, do not necessarily reach the same conclusions as to how one should act. Even with the simplistic goals described above, accurate value determination would be practically impossible, especially for large time scales. As a result, most conscious systems (humans for certain) would need to resort to heuristics, reasonable assumptions and simulations, based on largely acceptable theories and widely held beliefs. A formal NMT must therefore justify its prescriptions based not only on what is and what ought to be, but also on the methodology used to reach the conclusion.
The effects of certain actions may depend on how prevalent they are (e.g. free rider problem). More generally, certain actions may not be directly or even indirectly detrimental to the pursuit of the set goals, but they may be shown to increase the risk of straying from the desired path. To cover such cases, a NMT may prescribe practical rules of thumb, such as the universal law principle, taking into consideration the effect on the set goals, if a particular action became a universal law. The justification of such wide-ranging guidelines can’t be expected to be complete, but a NMT must show how their application generally leads to the desired goals.

The boundaries of criticism

Completeness
A formal NMT is complete when it describes all relevant system classes and interconnections.

Formal NMTs need not agree on what is, but they do need to provide a complete view of the proposed network of systems. An obvious point of contention is the proposition of a ‘Deity’ class, with one or more instances. An NMT can’t be criticized for proposing that such a class does exist, but it can be criticized if it fails to completely describe the interactions between the instance(s) of such a class and the rest of the described network. As a result, religions supporting that “we can’t know the will of God” would be quite difficult, if not impossible to restate as complete, formal NMTs. To offer a less contentious example, a NMT can be shown to be incomplete, if it fails to account for the effect of humanity’s actions on the environment and the feedback effects of those actions to humanity’s well-being in large timescales.
The number of system classes defined by a formal NMT is bounded only by the conscious system’s capacity to accurately describe the resulting network. A fine separation carries the risk of misclassifying poorly understood systems or poorly addressing the dependencies between two identified classes, therefore rendering the moral theory incomplete.


Consistency
A NMT is consistent when its goals are attainable and when its prescriptions can be proven to serve its goals.

When positing oughts, the value functions and targets must be carefully chosen, in order for the goals to be theoretically attainable. A NMT may obviously posit as many targets as it wishes, at the peril of rendering the consistency requirement practically impossible, since the complexity of the systems under consideration will probably lead to conflicting goals. Conflicting goals will need to be restated in a way that provides a single, clear target state, which will involve a compromise between the unattainable ideals. To provide another example, infinite values can’t be assigned to instances of all system classes, because the second law of thermodynamics guarantees that not all system structures can be preserved across time.
NMTs are supposed to prescribe actions that protect system instances and system states with non-zero values, taking into account all system to system interconnections. Regardless of the prescribed method for deciding on a course of action, the resulting actions must be shown to be consistent with the goals. A critic of the NMT may challenge a rule of thumb or heuristic used, by presenting a case where the prescribed action undermines the NMT’s own goals. 



Rigour
A formal NMT is rigorous when it can make testable hypotheses for the effect of certain actions on the desired goals. 
We explained how a superficial heuristic may lead to the violation of the consistency requirement. Lack of rigor is the greatest threat for a formal NMT. The scientific method is based on hypotheses, predictions and independently repeatable results. Given the complexity of the systems under consideration, proposing a fully testable NMT may be quite difficult, but not theoretically impossible. The less a NMT relies on heuristics, the more room it leaves for rigorous use of mathematics (e.g. chaos theory, game theory, statistics, network theory), peer reviewed socioeconomic and anthropological studies, computer simulations etc. If there is one easy criticism one could make for all informal NMTs is their lack of rigor. The path towards rigorous formal NMTs will be lengthy and arduous, but the benefits outweigh the costs.
A formal NMT can be criticized for lack of rigor when it describes what is, if it fails to provide unambiguous definitions of the described classes, or if it provides unsubstantiated claims on the dependencies between the classes.
 A formal NMT can be criticized for lack of rigor when it posits oughts, if the value functions it provides are not measurable. For instance, ‘happiness’ is not a clearly defined system state, but dopamine and serotonin levels are. 
A formal NMT can be criticized for lack of rigor when it prescribes actions, if its reasoning contains logical fallacies, or if it makes poor use of scientific methodologies. For instance, a NMT might utilize a computer simulation to predict the effect of a certain action on a set goal, but the software may later be found to have had a critical bug that skewed the results.

The boundaries between ethics and science
The role of science in describing what is
·         Science can assist in identifying potential elementary system classes (e.g. wolves vs dogs) and especially in describing the interconnections between the various system classes.
·         Science has no say on whether a NMT treats all animals as a single superclass or whether it separates them into dogs and non-dogs. 
The role of science in positing oughts
·         Science can assist in clearly defining system states (term disambiguation) and in calculating value functions.
·         Science has no say in the values assigned or in the set targets.
The role of science in prescribing actions
·         Science can assist in the complex predictions of the effects of particular actions. Aside from providing tools to facilitate difficult calculations, it can be used to prove that a utilized heuristic is unfounded because certain feedback effects from particular interconnections were ignored during the calculations.
Innate Boundaries
The definition of a formal NMT which was provided above seemingly permits a boundless set of possibilities. However, we should emphasize that the perceptions of conscious entities are heavily biased by the innate capabilities described in the preface. The more innate characteristics two conscious entities share, the closer their perceptions of the world and their place in it will be. For instance, biological entities are generally characterized by a drive for self-preservation which would not necessarily be present in an artificial consciousness. The innate selfishness undoubtedly biases the NMTs posited by biological entities and they generally choose to assign high values on the instances of their own class. To illustrate with an exception, NMTs which support the idea that humans should stop reproducing because of their effect on the environment have been posited (reference) but their reception from the vast majority of humans has been one of condescending indifference (reference).
Therefore, it is quite possible for conscious entities with many common characteristics to reach a consensus on a subset of the possible descriptions of the world and on at least some of the value functions assigned to the agreed upon classes. One should always remember though, that the agreed upon ‘truth’ is their own agreed upon truth, which is always subject to revision from future generations of entities with slightly different characteristics.



[1] Most NMTs will only assign value to instance states after assigning value to the instances themselves. However, there is no reason to a priori preclude the possibility of a NMT that considers the life of an individual worthless below certain thresholds of freedom, happiness, equality, security etc.

The morality of immortality


It’s been something that’s been bugging me for a while now. It started with a discussion on an atheism forum, where trashing moral theories is a favorite past time. While having denounced the deeply ingrained idea of a supreme entity as unnecessary some time ago, I still had trouble accepting that there could never be a widely accepted normative moral theory (i.e. a set of moral imperatives that most rational human beings could agree on).
I have come to believe that any species that does not place value in its long term survival is doomed to fail, so I set out to provide a logical argument to support the view that the minimum set of rules that we should all abide to should be one that ensures a sustainable way of life. Many of us comprehend the inherent failings of capitalism, a system focused on the next financial cycle. The basic idea behind my investigation was to prove that any moral theory that ignores the long term implications of our actions dooms us to extinction. So I started decomposing the essence of normative moral theories, in terms that an engineer like myself could make sense of. The result was not as easy to read and understand as I hoped for, but at least it made sense to me.
Having decomposed normative moral theories (NMTs) into something I could grasp, it should be fairly straightforward to put forth my own understanding of what a sustainable NMT would be and to show that any NMT that did not take into consideration my arguments would lead to an unsustainable way of life. In essence, I thought that it would be relatively easy to show that rational beings that do not care for their own or their fellow’s well-being are doomed to failure and that ignoring the effect of our actions to the environment that sustains us can’t be justified under any conditions.
Of course, thinking about a more or less obvious statement and putting forth unquestionable arguments to support it are completely different beasts, so it would really take an entire book to convince anyone that a long-term viewpoint is absolutely necessary. In fact, I am not even sure the argument can be made in a way that any rational critic would have to accept it. Maybe one day I will have both the time and the energy to delve into it further, and come up with something that few will ever read and probably no one will be affected by, or maybe not. But I do believe that a one-way street does exist, no matter how wide and all-encompassing it may be. It is the way of sustainability, based on the idea of full exploitation of all available potential, be it the potential of a Chinese farmer’s child to be the next Einstein or the potential of an obscure rainforest bug to provide the cure of a yet unknown disease.
I hope I can one day delve into these thoughts a bit more deeply, but if I don’t I am convinced that humanity will discover their truth one day. In fact, maybe someone I haven’t even heard of has put them forth more eloquently than I possibly could. In any case, unless we start thinking about what our actions mean for the people who will inhabit this place a million years from now, I believe we are doomed into a well-deserved extinction. And we are simply not built to accept such a fate.  

Πέμπτη 2 Αυγούστου 2012

Stereotypically, birthdays are times of contemplation, introspection and general glossing over "should"s, "could have"s and "what if"s. At least, that's what Hollywood tells us and if Hollywood says something, it must be true... at least for the average Joe... who seems to be the average person, nowadays.

Unfortunately, - for Hollywood or for me, I haven't decided yet - I don't consider myself an average Joe. Never have, never will. Maybe my mom spoiled me, or I was born spoiled, I don't have the patience to dwell on that right now. The important thing is that I clung to that ridiculous adolescent ideal of uniqueness and of... well... being better than all that. Yeah, I know what you'll say, "Grow up already", "If you're so special, what do you have to show for it?" and all that... but I don't care. I am special because I give a damn and that's more than I can say for the average Joe. You see, my parents had the ridiculous idea of imbuing me with a self-destructive, impossible to adhere to moral code. They probably didn't know any better, but I can't blame them for that. I am doing the same with my own son and I, at least, should have known better... Then again, maybe I did. Maybe I did and I didn't care. I didn't care because I knew. I knew it was the only way to bring up a child, no matter what. Then again, maybe I'm just as stupid as the average Joe. You'll be the judge of that.

But here I am. I know that my precious ideals stunted my potential. Maybe I "could have", but I was fortunate enough to be able to decide and I decided not to. Regrets? No, certainly not! Time to reconsider? Maybe. I'm still fortunate enough to have choices. You know, when you make choices, it's all about priorities. The hard part is when the neglected priority number 4 suddenly proves to be linked to both priority number 3 and priority number 2, but in opposing ways. That is, pursuing number 4 moves you away from 2, but closer to 3. What do you do then?

Priorities are not database entries. They are not absolute. You can always give away some of number 2 for lots of number 3. So, it's a compromise, like most of everything else. Just as long as you don't betray priority number 1, that is...

So, priority number 1 is that stupid thing that my parents taught me, to be a decent person. That kind of limits the rest of the options. I won't tell you what 2 and 3 are, because they don't really matter. What matters is that you have to make a choice and that choice seems hard as hell. Sure, you'll sleep on it and the next day, the answer will be as clear as snow... Or will it?

Our capacity to deceive ourselves is admirable, indeed. Am I deceiving myself by overestimating the effect of priority number 4 on 2 and 3? Am I about to make a choice I will be looking back on, decades from now, as another "should have" or "could have"? Dunno. I have to rely on the state my brain will settle on, after tonight's sleep. I'll do my best to recognize and accept it.

After all, isn't that the best we can do, anyway?

Σάββατο 6 Φεβρουαρίου 2010

Science fiction at its worst

I absolutely love scifi and I recently finished watching all the old episodes of Star Trek the Next Generation. I then went on to Star Trek Voyager and I'm now half way through the third season. There are quite a few things I don't like with most of the episodes, lack of imagination being the major issue. However, nothing ticks me off like the blatant disregard of the audience's intellect.

Voyager has quite a few episodes where the decisions taken by the captain and her officers go beyond the melodramatic, bordering on idiotic. Logical fallacies and plot gaps are common, but the last episode I watched exceeds all boundaries and got me cursing at the morons who wrote this junk.

For those who know nothing of Voyager, it is a ship that is stranded on the other side of the galaxy, trying to make it home. "Future's end" is a two-episode saga summarized as follows: Voyager encounters a small vessel with one human, who travelled back in time from the 29th century to destroy them, in order to avoid a catastrophy in his time. A battle ensues and both ships travel back in time. The time ship goes back to 1967 Earth and Voyager to 1997 Earth. The crew find the captain and learn that someone else had found his time ship and exploited its technology to start the computer age in Earth. This clever dude tries to use it to travel to the 29th century to steal more technology, but he doesn't know how to use it, so Voyager has to stop him to avoid the 29th-century catastrophe. They do stop him and are stranded in 1997, but immediately, the unthinkable happens.

The same time-traveller emerges from a time rift and tells them that 29th-century humans monitor time and discovered that Voyager was in an age where it shouldn't be. He has never met them, since he "never experienced that time line". He instructs them to return back to their time, but he refuses to help them get home faster. What he says, is unbelievable: "We can't intervene. Time travelling prime directive".

Ok, now let me get it straight.
- The same people who do not hesitate to send someone back to destroy a ship, have a prime directive that does not allow them to move the ship to another sector.
- Time causality paradoxes are supposedly understood as loops (A leads to B, leads to C, leads to A). BUT, it is possible to change C, and then another "time-line" emerges. Well, in that other time-line, the original meeting should have never occured and the crew should have found themselves back in their original time and space, remembering nothing of the meeting.

You can't have your cake and eat it too. In scifi, the reader/audience expects you to present your own assumptions. The more far-fetched, the better, because we want the journey to a different reality. But YOU CAN NOT ignore your own assumptions. Either go with the alternate universe assumption (changing the past splits the universe in two), or stick with the fatalistic causality loop assumption. You can not depend on the audience forgetting everything you have told them.

Critical thinking is becoming a rare asset. TV depends on its eradication in order to increase profits. The example I just described is blatant, but we are constantly being conditioned to accept more and more melodramas, unsupported claims, propaganda. The trend should have every thinker out there worried. The least we can do is speak out against these idiots, whenever they insult our intelligence.

Τρίτη 26 Ιανουαρίου 2010

The next big thing in Artificial Intelligence?

One of the few things that have consistently bugged me for many years is our inability to create really smart artificial intelligence. Just have Google translate a page for you and you'll see how bad natural language recognition really is. You don't even need to go that far. We don't even have a decent personalized software agent that will present us with the most interesting feeds and learn to filter out what we don't care about. Image recognition, speech synthesis, even a robot to clean your house seem to be incredibly difficult to achieve. Why?

Well, these types of problem simply can not be solved with the traditional software methods. The number of calculations necessary to simulate even the most elementary of neural networks is ridiculous. We could possibly build an excellent translation system with very complex algorithms, but we'd have to run it on the cloud to get the results within an acceptable time frame. Computing power may be cheap, but you still need to go through all the steps. One could argue that even a human brain is not that efficient at translations, so let's try using a much simpler example.

In order to accurately calculate the trajectories of all planets in our solar system, you need lots of complex code, executing a large number of operations. However, nature seems to do it all instantly. No matter how many planets you add, there seems to be no cost whatsoever in calculating where each planet will be in the next time interval. How is that possible?

In nature, the laws are immediately obeyed. Probabilities for all possible states seem to be calculated instantly and the bodies just 'know' where they are supposed to go. If we could simulate such an algorithm, it would always take the same time to execute, no mater how many planets we added. Amazing eh?

Well, we can get pretty close, if instead of software, we use hardware. Analog circuits have already been built to solve various differential equations. The leap from these humble beginnings to artificial networks of interconnected transistors is not that difficult. Or is it?

Our brain has billions of neurons, each with millions of connections to other neurons. Its size is tremendous. Just imagine trying to graph an integrated circuit with the same characteristics. Our current processors may seem complex, but they are essentially composed of repeating patterns. Compared to our brains, they are trivial. How would one go about building a circuit as complex as our brain?

Well, first you need to develop the technique to graph a billion components (say transistors for now) and interconnect them with each other. That will probably not be easy, but grafting in three dimensions is already possible. Then, you need a way to train this network, to do what you want it to. Now, that's hard! In essence, you need a circuit that will be able to modify the strength of the interconnections between the various transistors that compose it, via a feedback loop. Since we don't really understand the structure of our brain, we would probably also need to use genetic algorithms to 'evolve' the circuits. The idea is to present a number of such circuits with a problem, select the best performers and 'breed' them to get the next generation of candidates. After a large number of iterations, you will end up with a hardware neural net, adapted to solve the particular problem.

These circuits will not be general problem solvers like our brains. But even our brain is composed of various interacting parts. The more we understand their functions, the more we can mimick their operation. When we accomplish this, interconnecting the various modules will bring us very close to our holy grail.

Now, there is certainly some research related to these ideas, but to my knowledge, most of the research in AI is still done on theory and software. The amazing thing about hardware solutions is that they take advantage of the universe's amazing ability to simply 'know' what needs to happen next. All the inputs to a particular artificial neuron will 'magically' be added. Its output will be instantly calculated.

In one paper I read, there was a lower bound to the response time you can get from such circuits, since you have to wait for them to 'rest' before you read the answer. I don't know enough to say if that limit can not be overcome, but I expect that using such a technique, we can get artificial brains much faster than with our current methods.

Then again, maybe I'm just an ignorant fool.

Smart processes or smart people?

Found an interesting series of posts called "Enterprise 2.0: it's not about people it's about process". You can read Part 1 and Part 2. The author talks about Web 2.0 tools and how they can be used in the enterprise, focusing on their possible integration into processes. As I commented there, I come from a completely different environment, where ridiculously small budgetary, time and resource constraints force us to innovate constantly. I have seen how carefully designing a few key processes while leaving the rest up to educated, intelligent agents tends to give the best results.

Given proper motivation and guidance, people will amaze you with their resourcefulness. They will find ways to solve problems that no architect or business analyst could ever envision, reusing the tools at their disposal and creating new sources of information, processes etc. The question is how to empower the employees without totally losing control.

Well, you need to closely monitor the things they do, how efficiently and correctly they do them and determine if there's something you can do to help them do it more efficiently. That's the missing step in all the projects I've
worked in. Managers rarely know how exactly things are done, or how IT could help them do it better. But if you get a technical person to sit next to a call center agent the problems and the answers become immediately apparent.

Email, unstructured task assignment, document libraries and ad-hoc questions to more experienced agents are some of the tools you'll see them use. Blogs, twits and whatever else may be useful will gladly be used as well, as
long as it helps them do their job. No one needs to tell them to do it. If they know it exists and are given time to learn how to use it, they'll find ways to use it. But it is OUR job to see what they do and determine if a
particular activity is worth automating/integrating/replacing.

I totally disagree that complex, predictable processes provide the solution. Just try dealing with Oracle's technical support and you'll realize that even the best processes can not replace a knowledgeable agent, empowered
with the proper tools. In my experience, the cost of a 'perfect' process far outweighs the benefits.

I used to make the mistake of considering chaos a bad thing, the opposite of order. In fact, it is chaos that creates order. Complex systems in nature were not designed, but emerged. As humans, we have an inherent need to plan and organize, to make sense of the world we live in. But the world is far from deterministic and the larger the project, the more likely you are to feel the consequences. As more and more projects fail, as the drive to reduce costs and increase efficiency constantly intensifies, I expect that you will see experiments in carefully controlled 'chaotic' processes.

The first large system I ever designed was a 'ticketing' system. It was supposed to simply log agent-customer interactions in the telco I worked for. A key feature was the ability to assign the ticket to another person or 'group' within the company. Well, within a year, the tool was used to control an inconceivable number of processes, many of which did not directly involve customers. The users created virtual groups to categorize tickets (misusing the already available ticket type, which was always left to its default value). Some very interesting things happened in the company. People suddenly had a means of proving that they were doing their job and that the bottleneck was a different department. Tickets were 'hot potatoes' that nobody wanted in their inbox. If an issue took too long to resolve, the ticket of history would tell you what went wrong. In essence, the ticketing system had become a replacement for emails and helped identify several processes that were later implemented on our legacy system.

Our system gave agents an unthinkable level of freedom. They could essentially compose and provision products that did not exist and that our billing system did not know how to bill. Insane, right? Well, with a team of two developers, that was the best CRM we could provide. But guess what? The company has since introduced Siebel CRM, keeping much of the original ticketing system's functionality and orders for corporate products (VPNs etc.) are still being entered in our legacy CRM. Why? Because they are so complex, that it is very time consuming to configure them in Siebel.
Were the processes that emerged the most efficient ones? Probably not. Did we get errors? Certainly. Did we get the job done with the minimum resources? Definitely.

I anticipate that this drive to replace smart people with smart processes will soon reach its limit. Dummy agents can not deal with unexpected circumstances and no matter how smart the processes get, it is simply impossible to predict all possibilities. Maybe it is time to start thinking about providing smart tools that handle business events, one at a time. Maybe there are only so many processes that are repetitive and predictable enough to be fully automated. Maybe we should plan for ad-hoc, manual intervention, instead of considering it necessary only for exceptions. What if exceptions end up being the rule and the 'happy path' is in fact an exception?